The futuring method of Hilde Roothart
Futuring is a method for developing a vision of the future of the organisation, the brands, products and services. This method uses creativity, intuition and analytical skills to combine rational and emotional values to have the ideal and optimal insight.
Workshops and brainstorming sessions are essential for the process of renewal.
Futuring method Trend analysis
Trend analysis often refers to the science of studying changes in social patterns, including fashion, technology and the consumer behavior. In order to make any kind of prediction of what might happen in the future it is important to have an understanding of what is happening now - within the sector, the country or globally. The best way to do this is to monitor and analyse trends and scan the current environment.
In scenario development, trend analysis can be a powerful tool in developing content that can erase prejudices and open minds by exploring and combining far-reaching developments that might affect the environment.
I think this futuring method is the strongest one as an analysis is always very accurate. The futuring methods modeling and gaming I find the most eye-catching as they seem more of a method of the times in which we live.
Milan
Hilde Roothart
Hilde Roothart is an important trend watcher and terrific in futuring. One of the trends she is currently working on is that of the eco-economy. She stated that, in the future, every aspect of our economy and society would be that of a green nature.
Miss Roothart has her own trend watcher studio, which is called Trendslator, and she has written several books such as “Van Trends Naar Brands” and “Zien”. The first book is focused on that of the integration of trend and brand policy, as where the second book focuses on trends and the future (futuring) in general.
When she is working for her own studio, she has her own method for examining the future of a certain trend. She uses a combination of futuring methods, e.g. trend projection and brainstorming, to assess her own creative way to approach each separate trend that she foresees.
The futuring method Trend Projection
There is a various number of Futuring methods that can be used, which all have their different advantages and disadvantages. However, if some of your trend data is numerical, e.g. sale numbers or a political percentage, the best method of futuring to use is that of trend projection.
This specific method of trend futuring uses the numerical data to show changes trough out time. The trend line that will be made can then be extended into the future on the basis of the recent rate of change. This way the trend can be projected and show where it is in any point of time. The trend projection method is used under the assumption that the factors responsible for the past trends in variables to be projected will continue to play their part in future in the same manner and to the same extend as they did in the past in determining the magnitude and direction of the variabel.
The only limitations that occur with this method, is the fact it is only usable assuming that there is no shift in the rate of change, and second that the time limit is not short-term.
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Celine
Hilde Roothart
Hilde Roothart studied fashion design at the Art University of Utrecht. She has her experience from several different things for instance: she went to Paris for a few years and worked there for two styling agencies called: Peclers Paris and she also worked for an agency owned by Lidewij Edelkoort a well-known trend watcher. When she went back to the Netherlands she worked for a styling- and advice agency owned by Günther Frank and Milou Ket.
In 1996 she started Trendslator that put their focus on the translation from trends to strategies and concepts, markets and brands.
Trendslator analysis trends and uses them to develop their vision of the future. Development changes in the society and trends in consumer behaviour are translated to a more market focus advice were analytics and creative methods are bounded with each other.
Trendslator gives the opportunity to think by strategy and concept development. The company develops trends they use trend instruments and translation methods for example Futuring-methode and Brand in Time. Futuring stands for the development of a vision of the future. Brand in Time is the translation from trends to brands.
http://www.secondsight.nl/person/8859/nl
The futuring method Polling
Polling: Collecting people’s views on the future and other topics. Data may be collected through face-to-face conversation, telephone interviews, and questionnaires sent by electronic or ordinary mail. Delphi polling and risks. Other idea-generating or problem-solving methods are also common, such as idea mapping, impact analysis, and the systematic identification of all possible variables.
An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.
Response bias
Survey results may be affected by response bias, where the answers giving by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This can be affected by the way a poll is made so it can generate the results. The order of words of the way a question is been asked can influence the response of the respondent. Sometimes respondents can try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by taking a more extreme position that they actually hold to boost their side of the argument. It also can be the case that respondents may feel under social pressure not to give unpopular answer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
Hand out
Strongest futuring method in my opinion
I think polling is one of the weaker futuring models because as I already explained above is that there is too much influence on the way of answering. When using a method like Scanning it takes a lot of time but the results are more rewarding. Using the scanning method will take time and patience. When using the trend analysis method you can also have a more honest view of the future trends. My preference goes out to the trend analysis because of the more honest view and it is rewarding when you find the next biggest trend. Trend analysis is more about the in-depth look at a specific trend and all of its related issues and elements.
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The futuring method Polling
Polling: Collecting people’s views on the future and other topics. Data may be collected through face-to-face conversation, telephone interviews, and questionnaires sent by electronic or ordinary mail. Delphi polling and risks. Other idea-generating or problem-solving methods are also common, such as idea mapping, impact analysis, and the systematic identification of all possible variables.
An opinion poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.
Response bias
Survey results may be affected by response bias, where the answers giving by respondents do not reflect their true beliefs. This can be affected by the way a poll is made so it can generate the results. The order of words of the way a question is been asked can influence the response of the respondent. Sometimes respondents can try to manipulate the outcome of a poll by taking a more extreme position that they actually hold to boost their side of the argument. It also can be the case that respondents may feel under social pressure not to give unpopular answer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
Hand out
Strongest futuring method in my opinion
I think polling is one of the weaker futuring models because as I already explained above is that there is too much influence on the way of answering. When using a method like Scanning it takes a lot of time but the results are more rewarding. Using the scanning method will take time and patience. When using the trend analysis method you can also have a more honest view of the future trends. My preference goes out to the trend analysis because of the more honest view and it is rewarding when you find the next biggest trend. Trend analysis is more about the in-depth look at a specific trend and all of its related issues and elements.
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Sander
The futuring method of Roothart
Rootharts company is named Trendslater. It analyses trends and uses them by developing a vision of the future. All developments and trends in consuming behavior are being translated to market focused ideas where all kinds of methods are being connected.Because of this you will receive lots of information about the trends and values, which are connected to the consumers. For companies, the choices that are being made are very important due to these futuring methods. This method helps to create a correct vision of the future for the organization, the brands, the products and services. It has a positive effect to the choices the company makes, with help of the required information. The futuring method uses either creativity, intuition or analytical requirements. This connects the rational and emotional values
with each other into an ideal mix that stands for an overall sight.
with each other into an ideal mix that stands for an overall sight.
The futuring method Brainstorming
The generation of new ideas by means of a small group assembled to think creatively about a topic. Group members are encouraged to build on each other’s ideas and withhold criticism. Brainstorming is useful in identifying possibilities, opportunities and risks. Other idea-generating or problem-solving methods are also common, such as idea mapping, impact analysis, and the systematic identification of all possible variables.
Although brainstorming has become a popular group technique, researchers haven't found real evidence of its effectiveness for either quality or quantity of ideas generated. Because of such problems as distraction, social problems and production blocking, brainstorming groups can be little more effective than other types of groups, but it still provides huge benefits, such as boosting morale, enhancing work enjoyment, and improving team work.
Although brainstorming has become a popular group technique, researchers haven't found real evidence of its effectiveness for either quality or quantity of ideas generated. Because of such problems as distraction, social problems and production blocking, brainstorming groups can be little more effective than other types of groups, but it still provides huge benefits, such as boosting morale, enhancing work enjoyment, and improving team work.
Kelly
Hilde Roothart
Hilde Roothart studied fashion design at the Academy of Arts in Utrecht. She worked for the biggest trendwatchers around like Dominique Peclers and Lidewij Edelkoort.In 1996 Hilde Roothart established Trendslator, her own trend watching studio. Next to that she wrote three books about trends and is also a writer for various magazines.
As mentioned earlier Hilde Roothart ownes her own studio, were she does her trend watching work. When looking at the futuring method Hilde uses her own strategy. She is always looking for changes and developments which she can use to see future trends. By translating these trends into strategies and concepts she is able to create a structure which can be used in every trend situation.
Futuring method scenerios
A scenario is a synthetic description of an event or series of actions and events. When it comes to scenarios regarding trends they can be described in a story or outline form. Watching future trends needs a good eye for all different kinds of scenarios. If you can predict what will happen in the future you can make sure you are prepared. Trend watching is all about being prepared on ad hoc matters.
As a trend watcher I find this the most important futuring method because it gives you the chance to think about all sorts of possibilities which you normally haven’t thought of. By making a good plan, which includes the scenario’s, I can give my clients a good overview of what can happen and how I, as a trend watcher, will react on that.
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